Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 0.072715 0.083848 0.096493 0.111997 0.130599 0.152332 0.179835
2025-11-02 0.054451 0.067340 0.083288 0.104717 0.133141 0.170096 0.222685
2025-11-09 0.041404 0.054205 0.071201 0.095889 0.131639 0.182834 0.264180
2025-11-16 0.034078 0.047032 0.065407 0.094176 0.139618 0.211443 0.339725
2025-11-23 0.028409 0.041103 0.060222 0.092312 0.147375 0.243273 0.436282
2025-11-30 0.024456 0.036986 0.056962 0.092832 0.159674 0.288284 0.582420
2025-12-07 0.021207 0.033385 0.053842 0.092973 0.171904 0.339542 0.777091
2025-12-14 0.018100 0.029483 0.049482 0.089917 0.177483 0.381226 0.985179
2025-12-21 0.014937 0.024977 0.043234 0.081788 0.170166 0.391794 1.124075
2025-12-28 0.013284 0.022899 0.041111 0.081616 0.181124 0.455144 1.497778
2026-01-04 0.012100 0.021500 0.040044 0.083527 0.198338 0.547915 2.107163
2026-01-11 0.010953 0.019990 0.038478 0.083959 0.212342 0.642612 2.893995
2026-01-18 0.009919 0.018580 0.036941 0.084313 0.227420 0.757680 4.066636
2026-01-25 0.008858 0.016956 0.034647 0.082189 0.234549 0.852307 5.406939
2026-02-01 0.007815 0.015228 0.031821 0.077943 0.233288 0.914112 6.754196
2026-02-08 0.007199 0.014336 0.030808 0.078574 0.250031 1.082459 9.897482
2026-02-15 0.006631 0.013472 0.029709 0.078697 0.265531 1.268621 14.520983
2026-02-22 0.006208 0.012878 0.029183 0.080496 0.289506 1.545616 23.220635
2026-03-01 0.005807 0.012279 0.028537 0.081763 0.312631 1.863821 37.524753
2026-03-08 0.005334 0.011446 0.027125 0.080063 0.321426 2.098149 54.770548
2026-03-15 0.004744 0.010259 0.024566 0.073668 0.303640 2.083730 63.296682
2026-03-22 0.004454 0.009783 0.023920 0.074083 0.322392 2.459269 105.200122
2026-03-29 0.004247 0.009490 0.023747 0.076264 0.353183 3.054438 205.063086